Is health spending heading for the biggest shock of all? In his regular column, Michael Blastland does the numbers, in seven easy clicks.
Health is protected in England. While spending in most other government departments is being cut, the NHS will get above inflation rises. But what exactly does "protected" mean? Click through the slideshow, then decide.
To appreciate what makes the healthcare budget unique, you need to understand how spending works in another area, such as defence. Cash spending on defence soared over 35 years. But what goes up may not go up after inflation - the "real terms" line shows spending up, down and up again.
You can also judge spending as a percentage of GDP - that is as a share of the value of all goods and services produced in the UK. On this basis, defence has withered as a national priority for 50 years, on and off. Between the mid-80s and mid-90s, the defence share of the cake halved.
Now look at health spending. Unlike defence, over 50 years the numbers have risen in cash, real terms and as a share of the GDP cake. It's one of the most striking changes in the post-war state, under both parties. In real terms, health spending has increased 10 times since 1948.
But this hasn't been unique to Britain. It has happened in almost every developed country. Spending more on health is what people tend to do as they grow richer, whether through a state-run NHS, or privately. Populations age, technology improves, expectations rise. But does it stop?
Yes, according to Health Secretary Andrew Lansley. The line that rose for 60 years - showing health's growing share of the cake - will flatten under his plans. The NHS has been told to save £20bn from existing budgets to pay for all that would once have pushed it higher.
Those £20bn of savings come from a budget of about £100bn. Real terms rises in the spending review are minimal. So is the healthcare budget protected? Or, with growth sharply curtailed, when growth was the rule, is it facing as hard a future as any?
Still, less NHS growth might be good. Many say it was wrong to "protect" it. The big spending cuts in Canada and Sweden in the 80s and 90s are often held up as examples for Britain. But did they halt the long-term rise of state health of just correct a blip? Judge for yourself.
So can the government, and the NHS, deliver on its plans? Health can't grab more cake until it eats it all. Mind you, the US health slice - public/private combined - is nearly twice the share in the UK. Will UK demand follow? Can it be resisted? Or will it find a way privately, if not publicly?This article is from the BBC News website. � British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/int/news/-/news/magazine-11686396
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